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RotoRadars “The Ground and Pound” – UFC 211 ‘Miocic vs Dos Santos 2’
Welcome to this weekends edition of The Ground and Pound. As expected, I will be providing breakdowns and predictions for my top fighter plays within the card.
This weekends fight card ranking: 3 Star (Please play accordingly)
First I would like you guys to understand the scoring for DraftKings below:
Fighters in each event will accumulate points as follows:
Moves Scoring
- Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
- Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
- Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
- Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
- Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
- 1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
- 2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
- 3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
- 4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
- 5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
- Decision Win (WBD+) : +30 PTS
- Scoring Notes:
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered “Power Strikes” by official scorers.
- Advances include:
- To Half Guard
- To Side Control
- To Mount
- To Back Control
Fight of the Night: Miocic ($8,500) vs Dos Santos ($7,700)
We have a rematch for the main event of the night between Miocic and Dos Santos. The tide has changed here and for this instance the belt is on the line. To be known as the worlds badest man on the planet “The Heavyweight Champion” of the world. Miocic has been dominating his opponents since being crowned the champion. He is coming off a vicious 1st round TKO over Overeem via Ground and Pound who Alistair stopped Dos Santos before. You can ask anyone…..MMA math just does not work out at all cuz anything can happen in this sport. The first time these fighters fought JDS took the fight and won via decision. This time around though Miocic is riding on all the confidence entering this fight. He has defended his built on multiple occasions now. Both fighters are excellent boxers and understand how to use their range well. JDS has always used his jab to dictate space. Not only does he use it to the face but uses it as a body shot as well, something not many fighters do at all. JDS used to be known for his speed and quickness on the feet, but over the years its proven to fall off. Miocic will have the upper hand here. He will overcome the shot that JDS will throw and force him towards the cage to unleash a flurry of shots and bloody JDS. If JDS is still standing which he does have the power too aka previous Cain Velasquez fights, Miocic will slip will find a way to end it within the second round. Miocic wins via 2nd round TKO.
Note: JDS is still a great play for all GPP formats. Vegas odds have this fight very close and for salary difference within Draft Kings, I will be playing JDS in all formats.
Stats from Miocic vs JDS 1:
From the the first fight is clearly telling that JDS landed the most significant strikes within the fight. Head and body percentages are completely greater than what Miocic landed. Not to mention with Draft Kings newest scoring rules ground presence from JDS is a large factor too.
Fighter Locks:
Joanna Jedrejczyk ($8,800) – Is my number 1 lock in the entire card. The reason for this is she is a consistent technical striker. Who throws a tremendous amount of strikes within a fight. Her being the Champion only plays into being a bigger factor for this statistic. She has an average of 99.3 FPPF on DK. Her last 3 title fights have gone to the decision, but keyword here BUT has thrown an average of 189 strikes per fight. I am not saying that Andrade is no easy opponent, but Joanna has fought similar opponents before in the cage. He will use her range to pick her apart. Andrade will more than likely be the heavier strikers between the two, but she always stationed when she throws her strikes and not as technical. I have Joanna winning this fight. Joanna wins via Decision.
Demian Mia ($7,800) – Mia is easily going to be my second lock of the night after Joanna in all formats. He is currently riding a six fight win streak in the welterweight division and honestly should be fighting Woodley in July for a title fight. I still don’t understand why he even took this fighter after waiting this long since his last fight last August. Mia as we should know is a world renown black belt jujitsu champion. He used to be middle weight title contender before dropping a decision to the great Anderson Silva at the time. Mia changed his entire career dropping down to welterweight and realistically has been dismantling all his opponents. Jorge Masvidal is coming off an incredible stoppage over Donal Cerrone in January. He is primarly known for being a striker on the feet. He has previously struggled and started off slowly in his fights losing fights via decision. With his win over Cowboy and Ellenberger he has turned into up and coming title contender with a win over Mia. I just dont know how he will be able to do that though. Mia is so damn good on the ground. He has barely been playing the striking game in the welterweight division. The only way I can see this get screwed over for Mia is if he comes in with the wrong gameplan and tries to strike with Masvidal. If he does that then it for sure should be an easy win for Jorge. I just don’t see Mia making that type of mistake with being this close to a title fight. I have Mia winning via 1st round submission.
Eddie Alvarez ($8,100) – I honestly don’t know how some odds have Poirier winning this fight. You can legit say that Eddie is a damn hall of famer with the type of career he has had in mixed martial arts. Sure he got dominated by Connor Mcgregor, but so did his opponent Poirier and I would say he even got it worst getting KO’d in the first round in a lower weight class. Eddie has overcome all obstacles and has fought the crop of the crop in the UFC. Poirier for some reason has always fallen when he faces a higher echelon of fighters. Her can beat anyone outside of the top five fighers, but as soon as he steps up within that top five he falls. Eddie has the cardio edge and can take a damn good shot and recover quickly. It has been proven on all his fights. I have Eddie winning via 2nd round TKO.
Coin Flip Fithers:
Frankie Edgar ($8,600) vs Yair Rodriquez ($7,600) – This is honestly my make or break fight of the night. I honestly think that with Yair’s skillset he will be the “Chalk of the Night” especially with the price DK has put him at. All I gotta say is Damn Frankie Edgar is a beast. He comes through every night to fight and is a god damn grinder. He not only is an excellent striker, but a jujitsu black belt under Ceasar Gracie with excellent MMA wrestling. He has incredible timing within his fights and cant catch kicks to sweep his opponents and take them down to control them on the mat. Now the main question here is age. The older wolf vs the young hungry wolf in Yair. Yair is a fantastic striker with dynamic use of kicks and unorthodox striking. My MMA math here has Frankie winning the a decision here, but I am going for the upset here and have Yair winning via TKO round 3.
Remainder Card Predictions:
Krzysztof Jotko ($8,700) vs David Branch ($7,500) – Jotko wins via Decision.
Chase Skelly ($8,200) vs Jason Knight ($8,000) – Skelly wins via Decision.
Jesica Aguliar ($8,100) vs Cortney Casey ($8,100) – Aguliar wins via Decision.
Chase Sherman ($8,300) vs Rashad Coutler ($7,900) – Sherman wins via TKO round 2.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov ($9,400) vs Joachim Christensen ($6,800) – Antiqulov wins via submission round 1.
Fade of the Night: I am picking these guys as fades for their price on DK and the odds listings. They don’t have the finish wins im looking for to have as must plays for me. They can still be played, but the risk of having a decision win in a 3 round fight has me fading them.
James Vick ($9,500) vs Polo Reyes ($6,700) – Vic wins via Decision
Gabriel Benitez ($9,000) vs Enrique Barzola ($7,200) – Benitez wins via Decision
Underdog Fighter:
Junior Dos Santos ($7,700) – Per breakdown above ^^^
Eddie Avarez ($8,100) – Per breakdown above ^^^
Demian Mia ($7,800) – Per breakdown above ^^^
Yair Rodriquez ($7,600) – Per breakdown above ^^^
Believe me when I tell you this…..This card is incredibly stacked and the best so far this year with lots of talent and potential early finishes. Nailing the right fights is going to be key to take down these GPP’s. Please use the information provide to either adjust the provided lineup templates or even fade any fighter if you choose to. Remember MMA is to me is considered a true GPP game type. Cash games are always going to be a play, but with how crazy fighting can be “Anything Can Happen Within The UFC Octagon”
Play Smart! Good night and good skill!
@RotoRadarMMAPro
