I thought now would be a great time to do an article about DFS NASCAR since we’re right around the halfway point. This weekend NASCAR makes its first trip to a road course with the race at Sonoma and next week we head back to Daytona on July 1st for the Coke Zero 400. We have 11 more races in the regular season followed by 10 that make up the NASCAR Playoffs that culminate with the season-ending “Championship 4” race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Right now we have ten different drivers with wins. A win will automatically get you into the 16-driver playoffs unless you have more than 16 winners during the year, which is theoretically possible this year. So if you have a win, but are down in the points, you still need to race well and try to improve your point position until you’ve locked up a playoff spot.
Something interesting that I wanted to analyze was how closely the DFS NASCAR results on DraftKings track with the real NASCAR point scoring system. Heading into this week’s road race at Sonoma, here is a comparison of the top 20 drivers by average fantasy points per race (FPPR) on DraftKings compared to the top 20 drivers in the actual NASCAR driver standings (using their own points formula).
DraftKings top 20 sorted by fantasy points per race (FPPR)
NASCAR top 20 sorted by NASCAR points
As you can see, Larson and Truex are switched, but are very close in real points and DK FPPR. Those two have easily been the class of the field so far this year. Kyle Busch is third in both formats. Jimmie Johnson rates higher in DFS because of his three wins and because he hasn’t qualified nearly as well as Larson and Truex have, thus giving him the opportunity to get many more points from place differentials. The only driver who is in the top 10 in the NASCAR drivers standings who isn’t in the top 10 using DK’s FPPR is Jamie McMurray (14th on DK, 7th in real NASCAR standings). After researching it a bit, you can see that it’s because McMurray has had an average starting position of 9.6 this year and an average finishing position of 13.4 (a negative place differential). Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson has had an average starting position of 19.8 this year and an average finishing position of 14.53 as you can find here. I’m not sure why DK has a different number of races for drivers when there have been 15 official races run so far this year. That also accounts for the difference between real NASCAR points and FPPR on DK. But on the whole, DK FPPR corresponds fairly closely to NASCAR points as most of the drivers are in both top-20 lists.
Anyway, I wanted to check in with our NASCAR DFS Pro, Slingshot_88, to see what he’s thought of the season so far and what he is looking for in the second half of what’s been a very exciting and profitable season so far for many of our members like this one below. There’s more about shiposki75 at the end of this article.
Anyway, here’s the interview I had with Slingshot_88 only a few days ago.
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RRS = RotoRadar Spotlight
SS = Slingshot_88
RRS: So we’re at around the halfway point in NASCAR and the Playoffs (formerly The Chase) will be starting after the September 9th race in Richmond.
I remember talking to you before the season started for our first Spotlight article on NASCAR and you expressed some of the concerns you had about the upcoming season. Namely, you pointed out the influx of new, young drivers who were not established yet, issues with qualification rules, and changes to the races like the new stage winner system.
What’s been the most difficult thing so far from a DFS perspective this NASCAR season?
SS: There’s been a lot of chalk plays this year and a lot of the chalk comes from qualifying. That’s the key. If drivers miss out on laser inspections and don’t qualify – especially big name drivers – they start at the back and are always going to be highly owned. Well, on some tracks that’s been very good and at others, not so much. It’s been about finding the right balance to target the chalk and to fade the chalk.
You get drivers like Jimmie Johnson who, a few times this year, has qualified but has had to start at the back, and once he starts back there you have to go from the original scoring position, so those are the hard plays to pick because some of those drivers are doing really well even if they have to start from the back.
Like this last weekend (the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan), Ty Dillon started 37th out of 37 and that’s as chalk as chalk gets because he’s been having a pretty good season and everybody had him.
So, the thing that’s been hardest for me in a roundabout way, has been adjusting to the new stages. Those are two extra cautions that come out where people get a lap back due to the “Lucky Dog” rule.
Note: The “Lucky Dog” is the first car that is one lap down from the leader. When a yellow caution flag comes out, this car is led around the field and put into order as the last car on the lead lap, effectively getting a lap back without having to pass through the field.
You can have Kyle Larson be leading every single lap during the first segment and he might have a bad restart and then has to give way to Martin Truex Jr. for example.
The stages have played a little bit of a role and I’m trying to adjust to that a little bit more and that helps with the longer-lapped races because you can target more people for laps led versus last year where they just kept driving.
RRS: I remember you saying last year that you hadn’t played a lot of guys who qualified well, but were somewhere around staring positions 6-12. You didn’t see much upside in playing that area of the field because of place differential being important to the DFS NASCAR scoring system.
SS: Right. A lot of the mid-tier guys who start anywhere from 8th to 15th place or so, I always try to look outside of 15th place for place differential but depending on the track, these cars can make two more adjustments in the pits now because of the stages whereas last year they couldn’t. So it is a different ball game this year when it comes to selecting drivers who start more towards the front. If the car is tight and they want to loosen it up or vice versa, they get two extra cautions to make minor adjustments.
You have to pay more attention to guys who are not qualifying well lately. Joey Logano, for example, has been really slow. Keselowski has been running some bad laps. Everybody was on Keselowski this past week for good reason based on past results at the track, but it didn’t pan out.
You have to look at recency as well. If people are running slow consistently, right now with the Penske team (Keselowski and Logano), it’s pretty obvious that they’re missing something.
RRS: Logano got off to a good start but he hasn’t run the same since his win at Richmond was taken away after the car failed post-race inspection.
SS: Correct. And maybe that team was doing something that wasn’t getting caught, either, because you don’t get caught unless you win, pretty much. If you win, there are only like two or three other cars that go through post-race inspection besides yours.
RRS: I’ve been impressed with the younger drivers so far this year. Are there any that you are getting more comfortable playing that maybe you weren’t as confident playing in the beginning of the year?
SS: I’m getting a little bit more confident. I mean, Ty Dillon is the kind of guy that gambles a lot, mainly because of the equipment he’s in. You’ve got Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez that have been doing more consistent as far as top finishes. Of those three, Ty Dillon is consistent but he’s not a guy you’re going to see in the top 10 as you’re going to see Jones and Suarez over time just because of the equipment and because of the skill set. Jones has had a few races where he’s lost control all by himself and spun out so stuff like that makes you more hesitant to play him. Someone like Kasey Kahne is a more experienced driver that has just run into bad luck this year and so has Danica Patrick. She’s had races where she’s been running well and just got involved in accidents that weren’t her fault.
RRS: What about some veterans who just haven’t performed up to expectations this year? Obviously a big name there would be Dale Earnhardt Jr.
SS: Kyle Busch hasn’t won all year. Anyone on Joe Gibbs Racing hasn’t won this year so you have Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth who are three of the bigger names in NASCAR and none have won yet this year.
As far as Dale Jr., coming off of the concussion last year he just hasn’t been the same. I don’t know how much that has played into it although I’m sure it has to a degree. And some of it has just been bad luck like an engine failure in practice a few weeks ago and losing an engine in a race again.
Jimmy Johnson is another one. He’s been so up and down this year.
The two teams that have really gotten me off this year have been the inconsistencies from Hendrick and Gibbs. You can never really figure those two teams out.
Chip Ganassi Racing, which is one of the smaller-budgeted teams, has been one of the best teams mainly because of Kyle Larson, but Jamie McMurray has been consistently up there. The guy just never has car issues. You never hear of engine failures and things like that.
RRS: Do you approach picks differently when the NASCAR playoffs start?
SS: Once you get into the playoffs, drivers will shift gears, so to speak. At Talladega last year (October 23, 2016, the third and final race in the “Round of 12”), you saw drivers that qualified at the back who you would expect to move toward the front, but they had nothing to race for that day because they had already advanced to the next round, so they pretty much sat in the back and stayed out of trouble. That will be something to watch for again in the playoffs where you’ll see three to four drivers that have already advanced to the next round and they won’t be pushing themselves or taking any unnecessary risks, especially at a big superspeedway like Talladega where a crash could be very serious.
With Joe Gibbs Racing last year, three of the four had already locked up a position to move on to the next round of the playoffs so they just sat in the back all day and never made an attempt to move forward. And they were targeted because they were big names starting back in the field, so why not and go get them? Well, I’m going to approaching that way differently this year. You have to pay attention to the playoffs more, especially in that specific race.
NOTE: Indeed, in the 2016 fall race at Talladega, the four drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing (Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch) qualified 3rd (Kenseth), 11th (Hamlin), 13th and 14th (Edwards and Kyle Busch). Only Hamlin needed a strong finish at Talladega that day to move on in the playoffs and he finished 3rd. Kenseth, Edwards and Kyle Busch had already locked up a position to move on in the playoffs and they finished all in a row in 28th, 29th and 30th place. Source here.
As it stands right now, Kyle Busch hasn’t won, Kevin Harvick hasn’t won, Chase Elliott hasn’t won, Jamie McMurray hasn’t won, Denny Hamlin hasn’t won, and Joey Logano doesn’t have a win that counts towards the playoffs, so only four of the top 10 in the standings have a win.
RRS: So until the playoffs, place differential is still the big thing that you look at when putting together your lineups?
SS: Depending on the track. Like this last week at Michigan, if you rostered a lineup with Kyle Busch, Truex and Larson this last week, you pretty much cashed no matter who else you had in your lineup because they were dominators. Obviously, though, you always look for the value of drivers starting near the rear who can put up good place differentials.
I also have a few things I’m going to differentiate in my lineups going forward, because I’ve been seeing that some of my lineups are too similar. I want to have a bit more variety in my drivers in my GPP lineups.
RRS: Not a DFS question specifically, but if you had to pick who you think would win the championship, who are you choosing?
SS: Larson has been the guy to beat so far. There’s nobody that’s been stopping him. But I still say the guy to beat, I hate to say Jimmie Johnson, but… (laughs). Larson, Truex and Jimmie would be my top three.
RRS: Anything else you’re looking forward to in the second half of the season?
SS: I’m looking forward to Daytona more than anything right now. That and Talladega again. I feel that there’s money to be made because people are afraid to leave salary on the table which they did a lot better at from Daytona to Talladega. Hopefully they’ll forget to leave salary on the table again because you’re going to get guys that make no sense being in your lineup.
The two biggest races we’ve had so far from the standpoint of winning lineups have been Daytona and Talladega so that’s why I’m looking forward to them coming up again. Daytona is where one of our members won over $15,000. I think we have a very good chance of winning big money in those again.
NOTE: Member shiposki75 (Twitter: @shiposki75) won over $15,000 by taking down a GPP during Daytona. Here you can see his results from that memorable day and reaction on Twitter that was posted at the beginning of this article.
So that was shiposki75’s first GPP takedown. First? Yes, “Ship” took down another NASCAR GPP just last week as you can see below.
Ship has been using a mixture of Sling’s content found in his articles and his lineup templates to achieve these results. A lot of our members have been doing the same.
